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will be the percentage chance of making one
of those outs. Therefore, the most math you'll be doing will be dividing
small numbers by 50 (pre-flop), 47 (after the flop), or 46 (after the turn).
Before we move on, I must clarify one
thing. A lot of you might wonder why we never factor the opponents' cards
or the burn cards when figuring out how many cards are left. The reason is
that we only consider "unseen cards". If you saw what the burn
cards were, or an opponent showed you his hand, you would know that those
cards are not going to be drawn and could use that. We typically do not
know what they have, so we don't even think about it when talking about
odds. For instance, take a standard deck of 52 cards, remove 2 Aces and
burn 25 of them. If you drew the next card, what are the chances of it
being an Ace? It would be 2/50 (2 Aces left out of 50 unseen cards). It
would NOT be 2/25 just because you burned half the deck. Okay, do the same
thing again, but this time you get to look at the burn cards. Let's say
that of all the cards you burned, none were an ace. Now your odds are 2/25
because there are still 2 Aces and now only 25 "unseen cards".
By that same reasoning, let's play a game
of draw poker where you get 5 cards as usual, but your opponent gets 40.
Say you got Ace, King, Queen, Jack all of Spades!, and a Four of Clubs.
You get to ditch the Four and draw one from the remaining pile of 7 cards.
What are your chances of getting that Ten of Spades? Assuming you don't
get to see your opponents hand, your chances of drawing that card would be
1 in 47 (1 Ten of Spades in the deck, 47 "unseen cards"). It
would NOT be 1 in 7. Let's say your opponent goes to the bathroom, and you
cheat and look at his hand while ... » read more
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